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*強厄爾尼諾將帶來更多氣候事件

2016-03-28 10:16:19 來源:中國農機網綜合自網絡 閱讀量:16767 評論

      【中國農機網 地方農機】南方強降雨持續,多地降雨量突破歷史值;入汛提前11天,多條河流水位超出警戒線。厄爾尼諾攪動“風云變幻”持續,給未來氣候增添更多不確定性。

*強厄爾尼諾將帶來更多氣候事件

      暴雨持續 “桃花汛”提前現身

      3月,南方桃花盛開,暴雨持續。

      20日以來,湖南省南部地區出現大范圍強降雨,10個縣(市)出現暴雨,永州、邵陽等地降下冰雹,大如“鴿子蛋”。冰雹襲擊導致煙葉生產大縣桂陽縣約5萬畝煙葉受損,一些育苗大棚被冰雹襲擊過后窟窿密布,像馬蜂窩一樣。

      贛南地區普降暴雨,局部大暴雨,8個縣(市、區)的63個鄉鎮連日遭遇暴雨,引發洪水災害。贛南師范大學觀賞池中的魚都游到了路上。江西省民政廳新統計,截至23日,贛州、吉安兩地12.4萬人受災,近4000人被緊急轉移,269間房屋倒塌,因滑坡泥石流掩埋死亡3人。

      20日8時至21日14時,廣東全省日雨量大于100毫米的站有324個,大于50毫米的站有1032個,占全部觀測站點的57%。在南方,早汛稱為“桃花汛”。廣東省防總宣布,自21日起廣東全面進入2016年汛期,比往年提前近一個月入汛。

      “罪魁禍首”是誰?厄爾尼諾


      南方暴雨肆虐,汛期提前——不少人把“罪魁禍首”指向厄爾尼諾事件,也對今年汛期形勢有了更多的擔憂。

      來自國家氣候中心的監測顯示,當前厄爾尼諾事件在強度上已經超過1997/1998年度,堪稱有觀測記錄以來的“*強”厄爾尼諾。這將如何影響中國?

      “本次厄爾尼諾事件自2014年9月開始發展,至今已經持續了18個月,赤道中東太平洋海溫累計較常年偏高26.9攝氏度。”國家氣候中心主任宋連春研究員介紹,從生命史、累計強度和峰值強度等3個關鍵指標來看,這次厄爾尼諾事件都已經超過了1997/1998年和1982/1983年這兩次歷*的超強厄爾尼諾事件。

      中國工程院院士、中國氣象局氣候變化特別顧問丁一匯研究員介紹,此次厄爾尼諾事件已經對氣候產生明顯影響。對我國來說,厄爾尼諾事件發生當年,南方秋季多雨,北方地區冬季易出現暖冬。第二年夏季,長江流域和江南地區易出現洪澇,夏季東北地區易出現低溫。

      超強厄爾尼諾影響持續。去年入秋以后,南方地區降水較常年同期偏多,廣西、湖南和江西等地出現罕見“冬汛”。冬季,全國平均降水量較常年同期偏多5成以上,為歷史多。

      華南持續暴雨、入汛時間提前,或許是厄爾尼諾進一步“發威”的信號,這也為今年我國汛期形勢增添了更多不確定因素。

      聯合國呼吁應對

      據聯合國糧農組織網站3月23日報道,聯合國糧農組織等四個機構呼吁各國加強協作,以應對厄爾尼諾氣候給造成的破壞性影響。

      報道稱,在意大利羅馬聯合國組織召開的一次會議上,聯合國糧農組織、農業發展基金會、聯合國人道主義事務協調辦公室和世界糧食計劃署聯合呼吁各國政府、援助組織和私營部門進一步采取措施,共同應對厄爾尼諾氣候給約6000萬人的糧食、生計、營養和健康造成的破壞性影響。

      防汛抗旱不可懈怠

      2016年是我國農業調整升級的關鍵之年,農業供給側改革帶來的種植結構調整等等,讓糧食生產蒙上一層不確定因素,而玉米因價格因素更是前途未卜,全年糧食生產能否保證供應充足一時讓人看不透,再遇上強厄爾尼諾現象,不禁讓人憂心。厄爾尼諾現象的影響是性的,而對我國來講,保障糧食安全生產不可懈怠。

國家氣候中心新預測認為,今年春季,我國東部大部分地區降水較常年偏多,西部偏少,江南出現春季連陰雨及倒春寒,東北地區可能出現低溫春澇。夏季,我國南方尤其是長江中下游降水將明顯偏多,出現嚴重洪澇災害的概率增大。受氣候變暖與此次超強厄爾尼諾事件的共同影響,天氣氣候事件可能會更頻繁出現。

      鑒于今年嚴峻的早汛形勢,江西省防總已展開部署,要求各地各部門重點抓好在建工程,尤其是在建涉河建設項目的防汛工作。廣東省重大氣象災害應急辦公室將Ⅳ級應急響應升級III級,廣東省防總也于3月21日8時啟動了防汛Ⅳ級應急響應,并派出多個督導組前往清遠、韶關、河源、梅州指導防御工作。福建省防汛辦和漳州、龍巖、泉州、三明、南平等地啟動了非汛期24小時防汛應急值班,密切監視雨水情。要求對重點區域進行點對點指導,并對部分水庫實施了科學調度。柳州市氣象臺23日4時27分發布雷電橙色預警。廣西各地正做好山洪災害防范,加強預警預報等工作。

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