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2018年12月中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)27.8%

2019-01-11 09:08:53 來源：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會 閱讀量：13929 評論

　　【中國農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】 中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2018年12月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為27.8%，環(huán)比上升7.2個百分點，同比提升0.3個百分點。從環(huán)比看，6個一級指數(shù)中除農(nóng)機補貼指數(shù)和人氣指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，其余均呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢，其中經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)增幅高，為14.9個百分點。從同比看，6個一級指數(shù)中除庫存量指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外，其余全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，其中效益指數(shù)降幅高，為23.8個百分點。目前，6個一級指數(shù)均位于不景氣區(qū)間。本月起，植保機指數(shù)暫不對外發(fā)布。
　　特約分析師張華光認為：12月份，AMI雖然仍處于較低的景氣度區(qū)間，但畢竟止住了2018年下半年持續(xù)下滑的腳步，環(huán)比、同比均有所抬頭，雙雙上揚。意味著農(nóng)機市場在跌入谷底后，步入恢復性增長的軌道，即使這種增長幅度不大，但具有重要的象征性意義。六個一級指數(shù)“四升兩降”，尤其是經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)的大幅度攀升，發(fā)生在人氣指數(shù)依然低迷的情勢下，說明經(jīng)理人對已經(jīng)開始的2019年農(nóng)機市場的感性判斷和期待，同時也受制造企業(yè)促銷政策的刺激。在六個二級指數(shù)中，除運輸機指數(shù)挺進景氣區(qū)間外，其它指數(shù)均處于深度不景氣區(qū)間，提示2018年12月份的農(nóng)機市場依然處于低迷狀態(tài)。遵循農(nóng)機市場發(fā)展規(guī)律，已經(jīng)開始的1月份，依然處于市場淡季，加之春節(jié)將近，我們判斷AMI依然會處于較低的景氣區(qū)間。絕大多數(shù)一、二、三級指數(shù)仍然會深陷不景氣的泥潭，不否認個別指數(shù)逆勢增長，但這種增長難以改變整體市場的基本走勢。

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