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豬肉價格下滑，豬飼料行情如何？

2020-10-14 17:32:28 來源：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)原創(chuàng) 作者：林言 閱讀量：50205 評論

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】 據(jù)相關(guān)新聞報道，目前，全國瘦肉型生豬的出欄均價已經(jīng)跌破了32元/公斤，價格低的省份黑龍江省已經(jīng)跌破了29元/公斤。由此，#豬價跌破30元每公斤#也成為了熱點話題，并且有專家預(yù)測可能還會繼續(xù)下跌。豬價下滑對我們消費者來說是好消息，除此之外，這對豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上游的飼料行業(yè)也是利好。今天筆者來聊一聊和豬肉息息相關(guān)的豬飼料。
 
　　為什么說豬價跌了反而對豬飼料行業(yè)是好事呢？首先我們要知道，當(dāng)前的豬價為什么會跌。據(jù)農(nóng)村農(nóng)業(yè)部數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2020年8月，全國生豬存欄環(huán)比增長4.7%，已連續(xù)7個月增長，同比增長31.3%；能繁母豬存欄環(huán)比增長3.5%，連續(xù)11個月增長，同比增長37%。目前生豬價格相比去年同期，下跌了4.37元，豬價同比跌幅也達(dá)到了12.5%。未來，生豬市場供應(yīng)偏緊的局面將得到根本性的扭轉(zhuǎn)。
 

　　簡單來說，生豬供應(yīng)全面增加，豬肉價格便隨之下降。而另一方面，因為生豬養(yǎng)殖擴(kuò)大，對飼料的需求增大，飼料產(chǎn)能便也隨之恢復(fù)。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2020年8月，飼料總產(chǎn)量2296萬噸，同比增長14.9%，為2017年10月以來的高單月產(chǎn)量。其中豬飼料產(chǎn)量749萬噸，環(huán)比繼續(xù)增長6.9%，同比增長46.3%，連續(xù)3個月同比增長。
 
　　飼料行業(yè)上承種植、下啟養(yǎng)殖，是養(yǎng)殖產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中較為關(guān)鍵的一環(huán)。和生豬一樣，飼料行業(yè)在近兩年波動也比較大。2018年，受貿(mào)易環(huán)境影響，我國大豆進(jìn)口減少，作為原材料的豆粕也隨之減少，所以當(dāng)時飼料價格偏高；2019年，受非洲豬瘟和生豬產(chǎn)能下滑等因素影響，飼料產(chǎn)能下降。當(dāng)年豬飼料生產(chǎn)廠數(shù)量為5432家，比2018年減少238家； 2019年全國豬飼料產(chǎn)量為7663.2萬噸，同比下降26.6%；在飼料總產(chǎn)量中，豬飼料占比從2018年的43.9%下降到了33.5%。
 
　　今年，由于生豬養(yǎng)殖擴(kuò)大，2020年8月飼料總產(chǎn)量環(huán)比同比實現(xiàn)了雙增。眾多飼料企業(yè)近期紛紛宣布了漲價。其實，飼料漲價原因除了需求增大之外，還與飼料原材料漲價有很大關(guān)系。我們知道，玉米和豆粕是飼料主要的原材料，尤其是玉米，玉米占豬飼料原材料的比例達(dá)到了66%。
 
　　受多種因素影響，今年下半年玉米價格一直“居高不下”，尤其是國慶前后漲勢明顯，已由節(jié)前的每斤1.12~1.15元，上漲到目前的每斤1.21~1.25元左右，而且后勁仍然持續(xù)增加。其中，山東、河南、河北、東北等地區(qū)較為明顯，部分地區(qū)漲幅甚至達(dá)到了每噸50元；與此同時，作為豬飼料的主要原料之一的豆粕，現(xiàn)貨價格較節(jié)前漲幅也達(dá)到200元/噸以上。玉米、大豆和豬飼料關(guān)系密切，而豬飼料又和我們買到手的豬肉息息相關(guān)。
 
　　專家認(rèn)為，目前今年的第六輪飼料漲價潮已經(jīng)開啟，飼料產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈將明顯受益。同時，受養(yǎng)殖業(yè)行情和產(chǎn)業(yè)形勢變化影響，飼料企業(yè)正在加快調(diào)整產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈布局。大北農(nóng)、新希望、正邦股份等傳統(tǒng)飼料行業(yè)上市公司近年來持續(xù)布局生豬養(yǎng)殖行業(yè)，通過打通養(yǎng)殖鏈上下游環(huán)節(jié)享受產(chǎn)業(yè)一體化經(jīng)營帶來的成本優(yōu)勢。飼料、養(yǎng)殖上下游統(tǒng)一布局，這對穩(wěn)定生豬市場是個很好消息，隨著生豬養(yǎng)殖逐漸規(guī)模化、產(chǎn)業(yè)化，相信今后豬肉價格也將不會出現(xiàn)大的波動，同時對飼料的需求也會穩(wěn)步提升，從而推動飼料產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展。

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