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【本期關(guān)注】河南洪澇災(zāi)害會影響小麥和玉米價格嗎？

2021-08-04 17:12:39 來源：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)原創(chuàng) 閱讀量：49015 評論

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】 近期河南地區(qū)的洪澇災(zāi)害造成當(dāng)?shù)夭糠值貐^(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)受災(zāi)嚴(yán)重，河南省作為糧食大省，是秋糧的主產(chǎn)區(qū)之一。當(dāng)前，河南地區(qū)災(zāi)后重建正在穩(wěn)步進(jìn)行中，而此次災(zāi)害對糧食市場的影響也是很多人關(guān)心的問題。那么，小麥、玉米等主糧會因?yàn)?zāi)情而漲價嗎？二者當(dāng)前的價格走勢是怎樣的？
 
　　首先，關(guān)于小麥，在此次洪澇發(fā)生前，全國小麥已完成收割，且產(chǎn)量再創(chuàng)歷史新高：今年全國夏糧總產(chǎn)量14582萬噸(2916億斤)，比2020年增加296.7萬噸(59.3億斤)，增長2.1%。其中小麥產(chǎn)量13434萬噸(2687億斤)，比2020年增加258.9萬噸(51.8億斤)，增長2.0%。
 
　　在小麥?zhǔn)斋@基本完成后，7月份進(jìn)入了小麥購銷高峰期，市場購銷兩旺，收購進(jìn)度與去年同期相比基本正常。農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部相關(guān)負(fù)責(zé)人表示，由于今年小麥豐收，加之庫存處于高位，小麥價格將保持基本穩(wěn)定，大漲大跌的可能性都不大。今年小麥單產(chǎn)高、品質(zhì)好，市場購銷活躍，開秤初期收購價每斤普遍比去年高1毛錢左右，之后隨著上市量的增加，農(nóng)戶售糧進(jìn)度加快，市場收購價穩(wěn)中略跌。此次鄭州、新鄉(xiāng)等地發(fā)生強(qiáng)降雨災(zāi)害之后，部分農(nóng)戶和貿(mào)易商手中的糧食保管難度加大，售糧意愿加強(qiáng)，導(dǎo)致小麥價格繼續(xù)走弱，但跌幅不明顯。據(jù)調(diào)度，7月26日主產(chǎn)區(qū)普通小麥?zhǔn)召従鶅r約每斤1.25元，較受災(zāi)前跌1分錢左右。截至7月25日，主產(chǎn)區(qū)小麥已累計收購4004.3萬噸。
 
　　
 

 

 

圖表：2020年7月-2021年7月全國小麥?zhǔn)召弮r(數(shù)據(jù)來源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部)
 
　　關(guān)于玉米，由于當(dāng)前正值玉米生長期，因此此次河南災(zāi)害對當(dāng)?shù)赜衩咨a(chǎn)有一定影響。根據(jù)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計，此次河南全省農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)1450萬畝，成災(zāi)940萬畝、絕收550萬畝。受災(zāi)區(qū)主要集中在新鄉(xiāng)、周口、開封、安陽、焦作、鶴壁、鄭州等地，受災(zāi)作物主要是秋糧作物：玉米、花生和大豆。農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部在7月30日的新聞發(fā)布會上表示目前已排出農(nóng)田積水1190萬畝，改種補(bǔ)種15萬畝，災(zāi)后病蟲防控240萬畝，追施肥100多萬畝，接下來也會加大幫扶力度，盡快恢復(fù)災(zāi)后農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)，努力將災(zāi)害損失降到最低。
 
　　玉米價格方面，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部相關(guān)負(fù)責(zé)人表示，受災(zāi)情影響局部地區(qū)小幅上漲，全國市場變化不大。由于去年以來，玉米價格漲幅較大，受到市場各方高度關(guān)注，從今年6月份開始，隨著供給偏緊的局面緩和，玉米價格高位回落。河南等地暴雨災(zāi)害發(fā)生后，市場擔(dān)心玉米生產(chǎn)供給受影響，華北部分地區(qū)價格短期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了小幅反彈，收購價每斤上漲2-3分錢，但并沒有帶動全國玉米價格上漲。7月26日全國玉米收購均價約每斤1.3元，仍然保持基本穩(wěn)定。
 

 

2020年7月-2021年7月全國玉米收購價(數(shù)據(jù)來源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部)
 
　　總體來說，這次河南暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害對糧食市場的影響是局部的、短期的，對我國糧食生產(chǎn)供給全局影響較為有限。今年我國夏糧已經(jīng)豐收到手，秋糧長勢總體較好，再加上糧食庫存總量充足，糧食保供穩(wěn)價基礎(chǔ)牢固，后期糧價有望繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)為主。
 
　　值得注意的是，由于夏季高溫多雨，糧食不好保管，當(dāng)前又處于面粉需求淡季，低品質(zhì)小麥價格可能會持續(xù)走弱，在此提醒受災(zāi)地區(qū)部分手中仍然有余糧的農(nóng)戶和貿(mào)易商要做好科學(xué)儲糧，及時有序售糧，防止糧食受潮霉變和價格下跌帶來損失。

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