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9月份AMI指數(shù)為48.2%，“金九”成色不足

2024-10-10 13:32:50 來源：中國農(nóng)機流通協(xié)會 閱讀量：14023 評論

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】 中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2024年9月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為48.2%，環(huán)比下降1.0個百分點，同比下降1.9個百分點。從環(huán)比看，6個一級指數(shù)中除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢，其中庫存指數(shù)提升幅度最大，比上月同期上漲5.8個百分點；從同比看，6個一級指數(shù)除庫存指數(shù)外，全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，其中，經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)下降3.8個百分點，降幅最大。本月銷售指數(shù)繼續(xù)徘徊不景氣區(qū)間，經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)擊穿榮枯線跌入不景氣區(qū)間，其余4個一級指數(shù)均位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認為，9月份農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)走勢出乎多數(shù)人預料，旺季不旺。同比、環(huán)比雙雙下滑，“金九”成色不足，并創(chuàng)下2020年以來的5年新低。多數(shù)經(jīng)銷企業(yè)表示今年市場是歷年最為慘淡的一年，從調(diào)研走訪情況印證了這個結(jié)論。傳統(tǒng)旺季尚且如此，淡季市場又當何如？接下來的市場值得警惕。但本月庫存指數(shù)環(huán)比提升5.8個百分點，同比提升1.5個百分點，并高于榮枯線，以51.9%的景氣度挺進景氣區(qū)間，意味著經(jīng)銷商經(jīng)過不懈努力，取得較好的去庫存效果，庫存趨于合理。與之同時推進的還有效益指數(shù)，環(huán)比提升1.5個百分點，以51.1%的景氣度殺入景氣區(qū)間，折射出經(jīng)銷商通過優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品，強化內(nèi)部管理，創(chuàng)造較好的效益。
 
　　本月AMI指數(shù)冷熱不均，同比“4降1升”。從監(jiān)測的5個二級指數(shù)看，環(huán)比仍呈現(xiàn)“2上3下”走勢特點。其中，耕整地機械指數(shù)環(huán)比大幅度增長，并高于榮枯線挺進景氣區(qū)間；拖拉機指數(shù)在經(jīng)歷四連增后，本月出現(xiàn)小幅下降，但堅守于景氣區(qū)間。與之相反，種植機械、田間管理機械和收割機環(huán)比則出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。從同比看，除種植機械指數(shù)有所提升外，其余四個指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。
 
　　農(nóng)機市場素有“金九銀十”之稱，10月份，正值農(nóng)機市場旺季，成為月度景氣度的主要支撐。從農(nóng)事分析，下半年各類農(nóng)作物陸續(xù)進入收獲季節(jié)，除小麥收獲機外的其他收獲機市場將迎來銷售高峰期，成為推動10月份市場的主要動力。但過去10年間，10月份景氣度環(huán)比下跌的概率達90%且均位于不景氣區(qū)間，加之本月作為先行指數(shù)的經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)大幅度下滑，令已經(jīng)開始的10份農(nóng)機市場籠罩在濃濃的利空因素中。由此預測，10月份AMI環(huán)比、同比或出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降，繼續(xù)停留于不景氣區(qū)間，多數(shù)一、二、三級指數(shù)環(huán)比或出現(xiàn)小幅下降。
 
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