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2020年拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行分析及預(yù)測(cè)

2020-08-11 09:19:46 來源：中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)企業(yè)管理委員會(huì) 閱讀量：24346 評(píng)論

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 一、2020年上半年行業(yè)運(yùn)行分析
 
　　據(jù)中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)企業(yè)管理委員會(huì)統(tǒng)計(jì)，1-5月份骨干企業(yè)大中型拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量10.3萬臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)1.6%；銷量11.4萬臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)9.2%，銷量遠(yuǎn)高于產(chǎn)量水平。出口銷量8825臺(tái)，同比下滑9.7%。

　　近年來，農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)進(jìn)入低速發(fā)展階段，2020 年初又突發(fā)“新冠”疫情，對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)造成較大影響。上半年拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行如下幾個(gè)特點(diǎn)：
 
　　1.行業(yè)市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)先抑后揚(yáng)
 
　　1-2月份由于受疫情影響拖拉機(jī)行業(yè)銷量銳減，但進(jìn)入3月后，隨著國(guó)內(nèi)疫情防控形勢(shì)的好轉(zhuǎn)，受農(nóng)民外出務(wù)工難，更多回歸務(wù)農(nóng)，以及糧食和經(jīng)濟(jì)作物價(jià)格上漲預(yù)期等，各地春季市場(chǎng)需求在3-5月集中爆發(fā)，市場(chǎng)銷量快速增加，帶動(dòng)1-5月份銷量同比增長(zhǎng)。1-5月100馬力以上大輪拖銷量2.67萬臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)20.3%；25-100馬力中輪拖銷量8.75萬臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)6.1%。
 
　　2.骨干企業(yè)積極復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)，為春耕生產(chǎn)提供強(qiáng)力保障
 
　　農(nóng)機(jī)骨干企業(yè)憑借自身及社會(huì)資源優(yōu)勢(shì)，疫情期間在配套防護(hù)措施前提下，積極推動(dòng)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)，進(jìn)入3月份后，產(chǎn)能陸續(xù)全面恢復(fù)，快速彌補(bǔ)了前期欠產(chǎn)訂單，有效滿足了春耕生產(chǎn)需求。
 
　　從行表數(shù)據(jù)來看：一拖大中拖銷量同比增長(zhǎng)22.9%，雷沃同比增長(zhǎng)26.3%，東風(fēng)同比增長(zhǎng)11.2%，常發(fā)同比增長(zhǎng)19.9%，沃得同比增長(zhǎng)108.4%，都實(shí)現(xiàn)了較大幅度增長(zhǎng)。
 
　　3.政策利好助力農(nóng)機(jī)發(fā)展
 
　　今年，國(guó)家繼續(xù)推動(dòng)惠農(nóng)政策，加大對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)和農(nóng)機(jī)化的政策支持，密集發(fā)布了中央一號(hào)文件、報(bào)廢更新補(bǔ)貼實(shí)施意見、東北黑土地保護(hù)性耕作計(jì)劃、2020年農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)發(fā)展項(xiàng)目等一系列惠農(nóng)政策和舉措，提振農(nóng)機(jī)化發(fā)展的信心，有力支撐農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展。
 
　　農(nóng)機(jī)購置補(bǔ)貼資金穩(wěn)定在180億元左右，繼續(xù)拉動(dòng)需求，部分省份補(bǔ)貼資金較為緊張，大多省區(qū)資金相對(duì)比較寬裕。大多省份較早公布補(bǔ)貼政策，開通補(bǔ)貼系統(tǒng)，政策明朗，對(duì)市場(chǎng)起到引導(dǎo)作用。已有多個(gè)省份拖拉機(jī)引入K值進(jìn)行分檔，以期減少“大馬拉小車”現(xiàn)象。
 
　　4.產(chǎn)品需求結(jié)構(gòu)變化，升級(jí)趨勢(shì)明顯
 
　　大輪拖產(chǎn)品受深松、深翻、秸稈還田項(xiàng)目拉動(dòng)，用戶需求功率升級(jí)等影響，100-140馬力向140-160馬力升級(jí)；150馬力及以上大輪拖，一是馬力升級(jí)趨勢(shì)明顯，向200馬力以上加快升級(jí)的勢(shì)態(tài)，二是部分用戶考慮油耗、性價(jià)比等因素，需求向140-160馬力回歸。

　　中輪拖產(chǎn)品受部分省70/60或40馬力以下不予補(bǔ)貼等補(bǔ)貼政策引導(dǎo)，以及眾多生產(chǎn)廠家推出小底盤功率上延產(chǎn)品，以低價(jià)引導(dǎo)用戶升級(jí)等因素影響，50馬力以下銷量持續(xù)大幅下滑，70-100馬力銷量則快速增長(zhǎng)。
 
　　大中拖需求結(jié)構(gòu)上，大輪拖、中輪拖四驅(qū)型占比持續(xù)提升。2020年1-5月大輪拖四驅(qū)型占比達(dá)到93.4%，較2019年提升1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；中輪拖四驅(qū)型占比達(dá)到94.5%，提升3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
 
　　5.出口銷量下滑幅度較大
 
　　隨著疫情在世界范圍呈擴(kuò)大趨勢(shì)，部分國(guó)家(地區(qū))對(duì)貨物出口與人員流動(dòng)陸續(xù)采取了限制性措施，農(nóng)機(jī)產(chǎn)品出口受到較大影響。行業(yè)報(bào)表數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1-5月大中輪拖出口量?jī)H為8825臺(tái)，同比下滑9.7%。其中大輪拖出口1434臺(tái)，同比下降6.2%，中輪拖出口7362臺(tái)，同比下降10.6%。出口交貨值8.33億元，同比下降18.65%。

 
       6.行業(yè)集中度變化
 
　　大輪拖前三家銷量占比62.2%，同比下降0.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，呈分散態(tài)勢(shì)；中輪拖前三家銷量占比63.3%，同比增長(zhǎng)7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，有集中趨勢(shì)。
 
　　二、2020年下半年形勢(shì)研判
 
　　雖然疫情對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)造成較大影響，但對(duì)農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)來說，今年也有一定的利好因素：
 
　　1.政策落地有助于推動(dòng)農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)發(fā)展
 
　　隨著國(guó)家大力抓好糧食生產(chǎn)，增加農(nóng)業(yè)投資，前期發(fā)布的各項(xiàng)利農(nóng)扶農(nóng)政策在各地的陸續(xù)落地，將會(huì)對(duì)提振市場(chǎng)發(fā)揮積極作用，同時(shí)也有助于農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)和農(nóng)業(yè)綠色發(fā)展。
 
　　2.種植結(jié)構(gòu)變化將帶動(dòng)需求增長(zhǎng)
 
　　南方區(qū)域的“一季稻改兩季稻”、“稻田改蝦田”面積不再新增、東北區(qū)域推廣免耕播種等舉措，都會(huì)增加農(nóng)機(jī)產(chǎn)品作業(yè)量和作業(yè)收益，進(jìn)而會(huì)帶動(dòng)整體市場(chǎng)需求的增長(zhǎng)。
 
　　3.國(guó)內(nèi)糧價(jià)預(yù)期看好，種糧積極性提升
 
　　糧價(jià)上漲，加上限制出口等措施，在一定程度上形成國(guó)內(nèi)糧價(jià)上升預(yù)期，三大主糧及主要經(jīng)濟(jì)作物價(jià)格均有一定增長(zhǎng)，種糧積極性得以提升，摞荒土地復(fù)耕也相應(yīng)成為趨勢(shì)，將會(huì)對(duì)農(nóng)機(jī)需求也形成拉動(dòng)作用。
 
　　4.補(bǔ)貼政策同比保持穩(wěn)定
 
　　補(bǔ)貼政策仍將發(fā)揮引導(dǎo)作用，目前大多省份補(bǔ)貼標(biāo)準(zhǔn)已發(fā)布，雖有部分省份進(jìn)行了單臺(tái)補(bǔ)貼額度下調(diào)，但整體上的下調(diào)幅度基本在用戶接受范圍內(nèi)；加上深松、深翻作業(yè)補(bǔ)貼、報(bào)廢更新、秸稈綜合利用等政策的繼續(xù)實(shí)施，對(duì)農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)也是利好因素。
 
　　預(yù)計(jì)下半年拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)品整體市場(chǎng)需求將會(huì)好于去年同期，預(yù)計(jì)增幅在5-10%左右，其中大、中拖產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)可能會(huì)略有不同。

       三、問題與建議
 
　　（一）問題
 
　　1.農(nóng)機(jī)供給結(jié)構(gòu)性失調(diào)
 
　　目前農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)供給總量過剩和結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺的矛盾依然突出，國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)大型化、智能化的農(nóng)機(jī)產(chǎn)品短缺；而中低端產(chǎn)品制造企業(yè)重復(fù)進(jìn)入，產(chǎn)能過剩、產(chǎn)品同質(zhì)化嚴(yán)重。惡價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)成為主要手段，與先進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)裝備水平差距的縮小難以有效推進(jìn)。
 
　　2.市場(chǎng)無序競(jìng)爭(zhēng)或?qū)⒓觿?/strong>
 
　　針對(duì)上半年形勢(shì)，多數(shù)企業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)后期大多持樂觀態(tài)度，尤其是在企業(yè)全部復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)后，農(nóng)機(jī)供應(yīng)量將快速、大幅增加，但行業(yè)保有量大、機(jī)手作業(yè)收益低的現(xiàn)狀短期內(nèi)不會(huì)明顯改觀，這將加劇市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)態(tài)勢(shì)。
 
　　3.補(bǔ)貼政策的不確定性
 
　　今年是2018-2020年三年補(bǔ)貼政策的后一年，企業(yè)和流通渠道普遍擔(dān)心2021-2023年補(bǔ)貼政策會(huì)有大的調(diào)整，在內(nèi)蒙、西北區(qū)域等補(bǔ)貼資金已使用完的省區(qū)，只能在終端銷售環(huán)節(jié)采取保守策略，不利于市場(chǎng)需求的正常釋放。
 
　　4.市場(chǎng)判斷過于樂觀
 
　　今年上半年，農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)整體出現(xiàn)銷量同比上升的態(tài)勢(shì)，盡管有一定利好因素的支撐，下半年市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)“井噴”式大幅增長(zhǎng)的幾率也是微乎其微。如果企業(yè)對(duì)市場(chǎng)判斷過于樂觀，可能就會(huì)相應(yīng)出現(xiàn)庫存積壓、資金流緊張或斷裂、企業(yè)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)不暢等情況。
 
　　（二）建議
 
　　1. 加大市場(chǎng)監(jiān)督力度，維護(hù)農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)的良性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)
 
　　為防止市場(chǎng)無序競(jìng)爭(zhēng)或惡性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)損害行業(yè)整體發(fā)展，建議各級(jí)農(nóng)機(jī)管理部門進(jìn)一步加大監(jiān)管力度，對(duì)違規(guī)企業(yè)和流通渠道采取嚴(yán)懲措施，強(qiáng)化政策震懾效果，維護(hù)公平公正的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境。
 
　　2.補(bǔ)貼政策延續(xù)穩(wěn)定性
 
　　建議2021-2023年補(bǔ)貼實(shí)施方案不做大的調(diào)整，比如補(bǔ)貼范圍和補(bǔ)貼標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等，保持良好的延續(xù)性，便于廣大生產(chǎn)企業(yè)和流通渠道的正常運(yùn)作。
 
　　3.加快推動(dòng)農(nóng)機(jī)產(chǎn)業(yè)智能化發(fā)展
 
　　一是加大農(nóng)機(jī)產(chǎn)業(yè)智能化扶持力度，盡快確認(rèn)智能農(nóng)機(jī)產(chǎn)品分類，推動(dòng)農(nóng)機(jī)智能化在關(guān)鍵技術(shù)、應(yīng)用和推廣上的突破；
 
　　二是加快智能農(nóng)業(yè)裝備的推廣，加大“北斗智能終端”、“農(nóng)機(jī)自動(dòng)輔助或無人駕駛”、“土壤信息快速檢測(cè)”等裝備應(yīng)用的支持力度。
 
　　4.持續(xù)優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展格局
 
　　目前農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)已進(jìn)入行業(yè)洗牌階段，建議通過產(chǎn)業(yè)政策調(diào)整、設(shè)計(jì)補(bǔ)貼資質(zhì)準(zhǔn)入門檻等措施，改變農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)散亂弱小局面，鼓勵(lì)重點(diǎn)企業(yè)持續(xù)強(qiáng)化產(chǎn)品研發(fā)，提升國(guó)家整體農(nóng)機(jī)制造水平。(中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)企業(yè)管理委員會(huì))

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